INDIA–PAKISTAN MILITARY ESCALATION: A TENSE BALANCE ON THE SUBCONTINENT 1300 WORDS
India and Pakistan have shared one of the longest and most intricate rivalries in recent international politics. Based on the violent division of British India in 1947, the two countries have since then been involved in several wars, regular border clashes, and diplomatic hostilities. In spite of peace efforts on both sides of the nations for years, deeply rooted suspicion and sensitive Kashmir issue like to trigger armed escalations. The article takes into account the historical background, important military tension incidents, escalation causes, and geopolitical security ramifications. HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF
INDIA–PAKISTAN MILITARY RELATIONS
India and Pakistan are a byproduct of the bloody partition of British India, at the expense of lives lost and millions of refugees. Both nations engaged in the First Kashmir War (1947–48) soon after independence, which was initiated by the accession of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir to India. The war drew the Line of Control (LoC), but was unable to resolve the issue of Kashmir, the essence of their animosity.
The Second (1965) and Third (1971) India-Pakistan Wars deepened the cycle of hostility. Even though the war of 1971 gave Bangladesh birth and administered a crippling jolt to Pakistan, the cycle of suspicion worsened further. The nations since then have witnessed a series of low-intensity conflicts, like the 1999 Kargil War, and a series of border conflicts.
NUCLEAR DIMENSION AND STRATEGIC CALCULATIONS
India and Pakistan subsequently turned into declaratory nuclear states during 1998 by conducting tit-for-tat nuclear tests.
This ushered in a new era of deterrence where the conventional wars turned risky because of the threat of mutual destruction. But curiously, the availability of nuclear weapons did not confer eternal peace. Rather, it enticed Pakistan into adopting proxy war and patronizing terrorist groups hoping that India would be deterred from taking any action out of fear of triggering a war. India, however, adopted a doctrine of “credible minimum deterrence” and then an offensive military doctrine, like “Cold Start”—a doctrine for causing instant, calibrated strikes short of nuclear strikes. Doctrinal innovation and planning crafted further degrees of complexity within South Asian crisis management and military planning.
CRUCIAL INCIDENTS OF MILITARY EXALATION
Kargil War (1999)
Hardly months from the time that the two nations had signed the Lahore Declaration towards enhancing bilateral ties was when regulars and Pakistani guerrillas overran Indian outposts on the Indian side of the Line of Control in Kargil.
India retaliated with ground and air forces to retake the ground. The war continued for more than two months and cost both sides in terms of immense losses. The international community, especially America, drove Pakistan back. The Kargil War proved that nuclear nations could even wage limited war. 2001 Indian Parliament Attack and Operation Parakram
Parliament was stormed by militants in December 2001, and India sent more than 500,000 soldiers along the border in Operation Parakram. India and Pakistan were, in fact, at war for almost ten months. Diplomacy intervened only afterwards, but the episode demonstrated how rapidly tensions were able to escalate towards mass mobilization.
Mumbai Attacks (2008)
One of the darkest Indian terrorist atrocities, the 26/11 Mumbai attacks were perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists based in Pakistan. At least 170 civilians were killed. India never staged a military operation, although diplomatic relations came in for severe stress. The raid cemented Indian perception that Pakistan uses non-state actors as weapons of policy.
Surgical Strikes (2016)
After a terror attack killing Indians on an army base in Uri, India reportedly conducted “surgical strikes” on the LoC on terror camps. It was a change of course for Indian military action—a public assertion of actions across the line, unlike restraint hitherto.
Pulwama Attack and Balakot Air Strikes (2019)
One Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed suicide bomber killed 40 Indian paramilitary troops in Pulwama, Jammu and Kashmir in February 2019. India responded by carrying out air strikes against a Pakistani terror camp deep in Balakot.
Pakistan responded with its air attacks, and an Indian Air Force shot down a Pakistani plane while losing one of its planes. The Indian pilot was taken into custody and released subsequently as a gesture of goodwill. This was the first such mission of both nations since 1971 where both had used air power against the other and the serious possibility of escalation. CAUSES OF ESCALATION
There are numerous reasons India and Pakistan continue to experience repeated surges of military confrontations:
Kashmir Conflict: The unresolved Jammu and Kashmir status is the central point of focus. It is most commonly directly or indirectly attributed to military confrontations in regions.
Terrorism and Proxy Wars: Pakistan’s alleged sponsorship of the extremist groups operating within Kashmir and India have brought forth relentless aggressions. New Delhi views the groups as an emanation of Pakistan’s military-establishment complex.
Nationalism and Domestic Politics: Nationalist leaders in each nation generally resort to nationalism-based appeals in an attempt to mobilize backing. During periods of domestic political crisis, sometimes an uncompromising position against the opposing nation is employed in an effort to divert attention or rally public opinion.
Military Perceptions and Doctrines: Tactical doctrines such as Cold Start or Pakistan’s tactical nuclear alternatives increase the risk of miscalculation. Ineffective crisis communication channels increase the risk of unintended escalation.
Public and Media Pressure: Media-hyped reportage and real-time social media feedback can activate public hysteria, making diplomatic restraint in the political realm expensive.
INTERNATIONAL RESPONSES AND DIPLOMATIC INTERVENTIONS
Global great powers, especially the United States, China, and Russia, have acted in the past when India-Pakistan tensions were rising to avoid crises. During the Kargil war, President Clinton’s intervention assisted in pressurizing Pakistan into a withdrawal. During the 2019 Balakot attack fallout, nations like the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and China had called for restraint.
But international intervention is in most cases reactive, not preventive. There is limited long-term commitment towards addressing causes. Furthermore, increased strategic alignment of India with the West has constrained Pakistan’s diplomatic space, and the close bond of China with Pakistan adds the geopolitics.
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY
Indian–Pakistani military confrontations carry serious regional and international security implications:
Nuclear Risk: South Asia continues to be one of the world’s most volatile nuclear tinderboxes. One miscalculation during a crisis would result in a disastrous exchange.
Regional Unpredictability: Militarized competition drives regional cooperative forums such as SAARC and politically and economically impacts adjacent nations.
Radicalization and Terrorism: Continued conflict stimulates extremist rhetoric, which radicalizes young people and spreads jihadist ideologies.
Global Economy and Security: Being well integrated in the global economy, both India and Pakistan mean war as an interruption of domestic growth, attitudes of investors, and trade.
PATHWAYS TO DE-ESCALATION
Despite dismal record, there are a number of options available which can ensure the next escalation doesn’t occur:
Reviving Dialogue: Ongoing intensive dialogue for addressing political and security issues in question is a matter of highest priority. Track II and back-channel initiatives need to be induced.
Counter-Terror Cooperation: Pakistan must take seriously uprooting terror networks and taking to task perpetrators of cross-border terrorism.
Military Communication Channels: Hotlines and flag meetings at the commanders’ level must be rationalized to avoid unintended escalation and misperceptions.
People-to-People Contact: Student exchanges, cultural fairs, and media cooperation may reduce hatred and promote understanding at the grass-roots level.
Third-Party Facilitation: Since direct mediation is eschewed, global players can commence technical talks, arms control, and crisis management.
CONCLUSION
India–Pakistan military escalation is a pathological and dangerous syndrome of South Asian politics.
Although nuclear threat of war has stopped total war, it has not stopped killing battles, proxy war, and brinkmanship. The world will not permit this ambiguity. Long peace will be feasible only if the two nations demonstrate political will, correct diplomacy practice, and resolve to address the causes of their hostility. It’s then that the subcontinent can transcend violent history to evolve into focused to the light of peace and co-operation.